Fantastic-Cabinet
0x688b15f0b28ed993dba8ee14f3485ddbb55349f5
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$42.50
Total PnL
$32.37
Realised
$36.45
Win rate
93%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
108 shares @ 11.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.24
$-1.58
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
20 shares @ 29.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$5.01
$-0.69
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
163 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.9¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$4.81
$0.11
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
733 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.03
$0.03
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
38 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.26
$-0.19
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 2.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.75
$2.65
- YES
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
41 shares @ 7.3¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.68
$-0.33
- YES
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
64 shares @ 4.3¢·now 3.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.38
$-0.41
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
20 shares @ 18.6¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.73
$-2.06
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 12.1¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.52
$0.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?$1.00Jun 19, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$1.08Jun 19, 20:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?$0.64Jun 19, 20:06 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$1.19Jun 19, 19:55 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$1.23Jun 19, 19:55 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$0.20Jun 19, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?$0.36Jun 19, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.14Jun 19, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.60Jun 19, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.07Jun 19, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.12Jun 19, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$1.92Jun 19, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.07Jun 19, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.73Jun 19, 16:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.23Jun 19, 16:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?$3.00Jun 19, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?$1.00Jun 19, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.30Jun 19, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.60Jun 19, 15:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?$5.50Jun 19, 15:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
93% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 21:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 21:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.