Married-Mutton
0x68a1e2deb1bc57fe1c656feec99a0668a50b7c68
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-31.4K
Realised
$12.3K
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
51500 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-309.00
- NO
Will Biden finish his term?
44250 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2025$0.00
$-3.4K
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?
39178 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-509.31
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
39032 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.9K
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?
34000 shares @ 11.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.0K
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
33750 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-3.0K
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
30000 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.9K
- YES
Will Putin meet with Trump in February?
25000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2025$0.00
$-254.65
- YES
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?
20500 shares @ 19.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.0K
- YES
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?
15500 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2025$0.00
$-552.85
Recent activity
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$4.4KJan 12, 09:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.49Jan 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.49Jan 10, 00:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.49Jan 9, 00:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.49Jan 8, 00:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.49Jan 7, 00:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.49Jan 6, 00:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.47Jan 5, 00:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.47Jan 4, 00:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.47Jan 3, 00:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.49Jan 2, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.51Jan 1, 00:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.52Dec 31, 00:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.55Dec 30, 00:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.55Dec 29, 00:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.55Dec 28, 00:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.52Dec 27, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.49Dec 26, 00:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.51Dec 25, 00:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Dec 24, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $279.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 14, 02:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 12, 09:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.