Self-Assured-Sprag
0x68df487c9d9578aa2de02d1c211b9011c3b83a20
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$61.23
Total PnL
$0.32
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?
44 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$43.13
$0.33
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$1.97
$0.01
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$1.61
$0.01
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$1.49
$0.00
- NO
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in July?
2 shares @ 99.1¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.48
$-0.01
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?
1 shares @ 97.5¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.48
$0.02
- NO
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.60 in July?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 98.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.47
$-0.01
- NO
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in July?
1 shares @ 99.1¢·now 98.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.47
$-0.01
- NO
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.46
$0.00
- NO
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in July?
1 shares @ 98.9¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.44
$-0.01
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$1.96Jul 9, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$1.60Jul 9, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$1.49Jul 9, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.46Jul 9, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in July?$1.38Jul 9, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in July?$1.44Jul 9, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?$1.46Jul 9, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in July?$1.49Jul 9, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in July?$1.45Jul 9, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in July?$1.48Jul 9, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in July?$1.43Jul 9, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.60 in July?$1.48Jul 9, 07:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or below on July 8?$1.23Jul 9, 07:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C or below on July 8?$1.35Jul 9, 07:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on July 8?$1.40Jul 9, 07:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $1.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.