Wallet digest

active

Activity score

53/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-4.2K

Realised

$-84.63

Win rate

56%

16 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10?
2990 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2025
$0.00
$-2.99
YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?
1900 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-22.00
YES
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21?
1549 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2025
$0.00
$-15.00
YES
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21?
1020 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2025
$0.00
$-15.00
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?
886 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-17.36
SAINTS
Saints vs. Buccaneers
679 shares @ 39.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2025
$0.00
$-270.77
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?
663 shares @ 13.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2025
$0.00
$-90.78
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
574 shares @ 17.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
547 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$10.01Jul 21, 14:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$10.59Jul 21, 14:39 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$1.09Jul 20, 11:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$1.02Jul 20, 11:37 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$1.41Jul 19, 15:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$1.04Jul 19, 15:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$10.49Jul 17, 00:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$5.27Jul 17, 00:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$1.55Jul 16, 23:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$1.03Jul 16, 19:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$2.51Jul 16, 14:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$2.05Jul 16, 14:00 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$1.36Jul 16, 13:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$1.04Jul 16, 13:55 UTC
TRADESELLWill England win on 2026-07-15?$16.77Jul 15, 20:25 UTC
TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-07-15?$10.32Jul 15, 17:57 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$13.39Jul 15, 15:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$10.27Jul 15, 15:51 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$8.83Jul 15, 14:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$8.33Jul 15, 14:49 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

40/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

56% win rate over 16 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence53 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry39 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 46
Avg trade size: $4.90
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 13, 14:15 UTC
Last active: Jul 21, 14:39 UTC
Win rate sample: 16 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:08:07 UTC·src:Polymarket Data