Thorny-Headquarters
0x69026a45418ad2440911d95beb1deacc739d678c
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$6.1K
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$187.35
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
8748 shares @ 63.6¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.9K
$-621.93
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
2000 shares @ 59.5¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.1K
$-79.99
- YES
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
1339 shares @ 6.6¢·now 4.3¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$58.11
$-30.91
- NO
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?
9290 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-128.79
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
6222 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-68.44
- YES
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
3791 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-18.96
- NO
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
1200 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-96.00
- YES
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?
1057 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-21.09
- NO
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
1038 shares @ 18.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-194.04
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-52.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.54Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.54Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.54Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.54Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.54Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.54Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.54Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.54Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.54Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.54Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.54Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.54Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.53Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $60.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 16:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.