Wallet digest

whale

Activity score

91/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$208.3K

Total PnL

$-2.8K

Realised

$-2.5K

Win rate

54%

52 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 66

NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July?
20000 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$20.0K
$111.82
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?
20000 shares @ 97.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$20.0K
$475.78
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in July?
20000 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$20.0K
$144.80
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
20000 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$20.0K
$80.00
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $37,500 in July?
20000 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$20.0K
$78.98
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?
18861 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$18.9K
$111.40
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?
17789 shares @ 98.4¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$17.8K
$255.04
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?
13839 shares @ 96.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$13.8K
$453.79
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?
9663 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$9.7K
$74.28
NO
Will Ethereum dip to $700 in July?
6000 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$6.0K
$33.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?$446.53Jul 29, 07:46 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$0.03Jul 29, 07:27 UTC
TRADESELLWill Solana dip to $70 in July?$1.54Jul 29, 07:27 UTC
TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $1.20 in July?$12.17Jul 29, 07:26 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$237.91Jul 29, 07:25 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$0.03Jul 29, 07:23 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?$168.39Jul 29, 07:22 UTC
TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?$56.43Jul 29, 07:22 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$0.26Jul 29, 07:21 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$0.26Jul 29, 07:20 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?$74.38Jul 29, 07:20 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$0.06Jul 29, 07:19 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$0.02Jul 29, 07:19 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$24.00Jul 29, 07:19 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$0.02Jul 29, 07:18 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$0.01Jul 29, 07:17 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$0.02Jul 29, 07:17 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$18.39Jul 29, 07:17 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$17.07Jul 29, 07:17 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$0.07Jul 29, 07:17 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

51/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

54% win rate over 52 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

50 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

52 closed markets, 54% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

Sample

low

1 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?

$11.8K · 100% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?100% of recorded volume$11.8K

Profile dimensions

Activity73 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry3 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 50
Avg trade size: $59.13
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 29, 06:17 UTC
Last active: Jul 29, 07:46 UTC
Win rate sample: 52 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 07:49:51 UTC·src:Polymarket Data