Watchful-Harald
0x6919e123baa9a38cb9b5f86a6b8c7217b2909ae7
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-383.40
Realised
$-12.65
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?
9191 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?
9010 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.01
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
8810 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-35.24
- NO
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026?
2813 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.25
- NO
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?
2314 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-80.08
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
2009 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-20.09
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Trump say "El Salvador" this week? (March 8)
1312 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 3PM ET
1012 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-41.97
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?$0.00May 1, 20:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?$0.00Apr 28, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?$0.00Apr 28, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?$0.00Apr 28, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?$0.00Apr 28, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?$0.00Apr 28, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video not be posted?$0.00Apr 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$6.88Apr 20, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?$99.00Apr 18, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?$38.99Apr 14, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?$68.82Apr 8, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYHouthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?$22.46Apr 4, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYSenators vs. Panthers$2.57Apr 1, 01:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$2.57Apr 1, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$2.68Mar 31, 01:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?$2.68Mar 31, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?$11.22Mar 28, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?$9.01Mar 24, 03:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?$9.10Mar 24, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?$0.00Mar 23, 23:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $20.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 8, 14:02 UTC
- Last active
- May 1, 20:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.