Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

156

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-6.9K

Realised

$-454.43

Win rate

142 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 156

YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?
1717 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-464.09
YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?
1334 shares @ 86.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-1.1K
NO
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
1050 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-1.05
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
619 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-247.60
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
550 shares @ 27.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-150.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
440 shares @ 68.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
412 shares @ 48.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
YES
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?
400 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
366 shares @ 27.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
343 shares @ 29.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$6.83Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-03?$1.2KJul 3, 21:31 UTC
REDEEMWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?$1.2KJul 3, 05:23 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?$569.72Jul 2, 22:06 UTC
REDEEMWill Spain win on 2026-07-02?$571.00Jul 2, 21:34 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-02?$431.46Jul 2, 11:39 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Belgium win on 2026-07-01?$372.39Jul 1, 20:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$258.00Jul 1, 20:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$104.46Jul 1, 20:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$103.29Jul 1, 20:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$101.54Jul 1, 20:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$101.33Jul 1, 20:36 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$0.00Jul 1, 20:36 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$209.64Jul 1, 20:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$100.22Jul 1, 20:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$100.42Jul 1, 20:34 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$0.00Jul 1, 20:33 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$51.43Jul 1, 20:27 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$103.09Jul 1, 20:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$103.43Jul 1, 20:24 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

61/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 142 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

142 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry68 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 31
Avg trade size: $147.17
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 29, 20:11 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
Win rate sample: 142 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:25:13 UTC·src:Polymarket Data