Frozen-Coil-Hedgehog
0x69448d9d3ae6c6c62d94ab9c1ea696532fa47275
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$5.5K
Total PnL
$310.93
Realised
$95.15
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
675 shares @ 61.4¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$502.88
$88.38
- NO
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
500 shares @ 74.3¢·now 80.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$400.00
$28.50
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?
400 shares @ 96.6¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$388.20
$1.80
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
351 shares @ 79.8¢·now 82.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$288.07
$7.58
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
450 shares @ 60.3¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$276.75
$5.37
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
350 shares @ 73.6¢·now 76.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$267.75
$10.25
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
280 shares @ 85.1¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$256.20
$17.80
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
260 shares @ 87.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$235.30
$7.75
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
350 shares @ 66.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$218.75
$-12.25
- NO
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?
200 shares @ 87.3¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$194.90
$20.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?$13.53Jul 24, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?$35.31Jul 24, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?$27.49Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$7.10Jul 24, 00:03 UTC
- REWARD$8.79Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$127.89Jul 23, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$63.90Jul 23, 23:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$44.95Jul 23, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?$4.26Jul 23, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 24, 2026?$22.42Jul 23, 21:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$130.00Jul 23, 21:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 23, 2026?$50.00Jul 23, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$26.00Jul 23, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$45.26Jul 23, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$136.74Jul 23, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$198.00Jul 23, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$51.98Jul 23, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 27?$30.50Jul 23, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$28.50Jul 23, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 24, 2026?$30.00Jul 23, 18:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $49.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 07:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.