Wallet profile

Serpentine-Maggot

0x69645cea639e7a19cbde6c126a197bc1abafef53

activity 68/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

68/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

40

Open notional

$7.1K

Total PnL

$-21.6K

Realised

$-5.8K

Win rate

32%

25 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 40

Recent activity

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

Ledger volume

$67.2K

Trades

2

Buy share

92%

Window

May 25, 02:50 UTC → Jun 29, 15:58 UTC

Last 30 days · daily volumemax $0.00

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

42/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

32% win rate over 25 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
review

48 live trades, 5 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.

Resolved-only track record
review

25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

92%

Sample

limited

5 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?

$21.4K · 32% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?32% of recorded volume$21.4KWill the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or higher on May 24?29% of recorded volume$19.4KWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?19% of recorded volume$13.0K

Profile dimensions

Activity72 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence83 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry23 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk62 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
48
Avg trade size
$150.25
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jul 29, 13:55 UTC
Last active
Jul 29, 16:27 UTC
Win rate sample
25 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 20:29:37 UTC·src:Polymarket Data