Optimistic-Bend
0x69778bee4b2168330497aaf2882976d72cb387df
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$10.80
Total PnL
$-68.35
Realised
$9.08
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
11 shares @ 46.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$10.80
$5.80
- YES
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on October 31?
448 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on October 31?
400 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 2500000 and 2750000?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31?
79 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5?
75 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 6, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?
44 shares @ 15.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November?
39 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-8.86
- YES
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31?
18 shares @ 27.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5?$4.00Oct 5, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?$1.00Oct 5, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 2500000 and 2750000?$1.00Oct 5, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernard Arnault be richest person on October 31?$2.00Oct 5, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jeff Bezos be richest person on October 31?$2.00Oct 5, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31?$3.00Oct 5, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?$5.00Oct 5, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-05?$5.00Oct 5, 20:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-10-04?$5.26Oct 5, 20:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CF Pachuca win on 2025-10-03?$5.00Oct 4, 03:20 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)$8.33Oct 2, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?$2.00Oct 1, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYGiants vs. Saints$4.00Oct 1, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-10-04?$3.00Oct 1, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CF Pachuca win on 2025-10-03?$2.00Oct 1, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)$3.00Oct 1, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYRed Sox vs. Yankees$5.00Oct 1, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBears vs. Raiders$8.32Sep 29, 00:05 UTC
- TRADESELLRavens vs. Chiefs$11.35Sep 29, 00:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CF América win on 2025-09-27?$8.61Sep 28, 05:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 21, 20:16 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 5, 20:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.