Brilliant-Effective
0x699314dd3dc6952187ef918d088286a42edee1a1
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$166.33
Total PnL
$-256.69
Realised
$2.68
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
50 shares @ 91.0¢·now 79.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$39.70
$-5.80
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?
50 shares @ 85.7¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$34.27
$-8.57
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?
50 shares @ 82.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$32.25
$-8.75
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 30?
20 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$20.00
$3.00
- NO
Will Matt Gaetz announce a presidential run before 2027?
9 shares @ 95.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.32
$-0.23
- NO
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
9 shares @ 87.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.28
$0.89
- NO
Ledger IPO closing market cap above $7B?
9 shares @ 97.0¢·now 89.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$8.07
$-0.66
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-02 House seat?
9 shares @ 95.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$7.99
$-0.09
- NO
Hurupay FDV above $20M one day after launch?
9 shares @ 87.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.44
$0.04
- YES
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30?
280 shares @ 70.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-196.38
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat?$2.40Aug 7, 21:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat?$5.76Jul 22, 12:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the IL-07 House seat?$8.07Jul 13, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Plasma reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026?$8.84Jul 10, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLMajor CEX insolvent in 2026?$5.87Jun 27, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLMajor CEX insolvent in 2026?$1.16Jun 25, 13:02 UTC
- TRADESELLMajor CEX insolvent in 2026?$2.26Jun 25, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 30?$17.00Jun 24, 16:51 UTC
- TRADESELL9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$8.45Jun 22, 22:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?$14.87Jun 9, 06:13 UTC
- REDEEMAnother GTA VI trailer released by March 31?$1.35Apr 2, 01:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?$3.50Apr 2, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 1?$6.00Apr 1, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 1?$3.95Mar 31, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 1?$3.12Mar 31, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 1?$3.12Mar 31, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYPredict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?$45.50Mar 31, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYPredict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?$42.85Mar 31, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?$8.20Mar 31, 09:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 30?$30.00Mar 31, 08:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $20.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 05:56 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 21:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.