Crazy-Icon
0x6996447ae9db5a6dad323b7285b04f2fbf8bcf9a
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$94.88
Total PnL
$-5.9K
Realised
$658.26
Win rate
62%
91 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$35.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?
4646 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$34.84
$-21.40
- NO
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3500 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$22.75
$-68.64
- YES
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1700 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.85
$-12.75
- YES
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
24 shares @ 0.2¢·now 3.1¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.76
$0.71
- YES
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
14 shares @ 0.2¢·now 2.7¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.38
$0.35
- NO
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
67 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.30
$-14.37
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?
6700 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-49.73
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 53 million views on day 2?
6233 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-70.07
- TEAM YANDEX
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs
6037 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-11.46
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.00Jun 19, 06:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.07Jun 18, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$41.43Jun 18, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$23.50Jun 18, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$38.79Jun 18, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$9.70Jun 18, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYGhana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score$17.42Jun 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYGhana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score$33.77Jun 18, 00:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYGhana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score$105.50Jun 17, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLAustria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score$199.79Jun 17, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYAustria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score$93.49Jun 17, 04:30 UTC
- TRADESELLAustria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score$150.00Jun 17, 04:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYAustria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score$85.46Jun 17, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score$93.74Jun 17, 01:02 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?$56.47Jun 16, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iraq win on 2026-06-16?$13.00Jun 16, 23:05 UTC
- TRADESELLFrance vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score$113.80Jun 16, 20:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 91 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
91 closed markets, 62% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $38.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 22:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 06:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 91 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.