Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-18.4K

Realised

$-288.89

Win rate

10 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

OVER
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5
7665 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-714.71
YES
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1333 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
1177 shares @ 61.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026
$0.00
$-725.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
1040 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
FRANCE
France vs. England: Team to Win
657 shares @ 45.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
586 shares @ 29.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026
$0.00
$-175.00
OVER
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5
500 shares @ 57.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-288.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
498 shares @ 35.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026
$0.00
$-175.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
496 shares @ 65.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026
$0.00
$-325.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET
492 shares @ 20.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$4.03Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$258.78Jul 20, 14:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$101.40Jul 20, 14:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$25.30Jul 20, 14:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$101.92Jul 20, 14:36 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$144.81Jul 20, 14:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$25.23Jul 20, 14:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$101.05Jul 20, 14:17 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$464.16Jul 20, 14:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$25.42Jul 20, 14:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$104.27Jul 20, 14:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$103.71Jul 20, 14:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$103.20Jul 20, 14:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$102.87Jul 20, 14:08 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$202.59Jul 20, 14:07 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$216.85Jul 20, 14:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$102.80Jul 20, 14:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$25.56Jul 20, 14:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$25.54Jul 20, 14:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$103.22Jul 20, 14:07 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

36/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 10 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence33 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry74 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk45 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 45
Avg trade size: $78.99
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 19, 19:30 UTC
Last active: Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
Win rate sample: 10 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 09:39:03 UTC·src:Polymarket Data