0x6a0ce9eda94430b60a15565380a1f0c5a662381b
0x6a0ce9eda94430b60a15565380a1f0c5a662381b
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$40.08
Total PnL
$2.53
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
8 shares @ 76.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$6.51
$0.51
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
8 shares @ 73.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.16
$0.24
- NO
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
6 shares @ 79.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$4.94
$-0.10
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
6 shares @ 80.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$4.53
$-0.33
- NO
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?
7 shares @ 28.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$4.52
$2.63
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
7 shares @ 75.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$4.12
$-0.82
- NO
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of July 20 2026?
7 shares @ 21.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$2.38
$0.91
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
6 shares @ 21.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$2.22
$0.94
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
7 shares @ 21.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.65
$0.17
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of July 20 2026?
7 shares @ 30.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.33
$-0.77
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$6.00Jul 21, 22:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$0.00Jul 21, 18:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$6.08Jul 21, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of July 20 2026?$1.52Jul 21, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$5.00Jul 20, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?$0.00Jul 20, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of July 20 2026?$2.16Jul 20, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?$1.75Jul 19, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$2.46Jul 19, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?$0.00Jul 19, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.96Jul 18, 22:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?$0.00Jul 18, 18:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?$0.00Jul 18, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$4.44Jul 18, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$1.53Jul 17, 22:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of July 13 2026?$0.00Jul 17, 20:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$0.00Jul 17, 18:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$7.00Jul 17, 18:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $100 Week of July 13 2026?$6.56Jul 17, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?$1.33Jul 17, 10:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $3.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 09:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 22:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.