Substantial-Sigh
0x6a22b33197f0d29de04d5debfc84223202d61ccf
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
76
Open notional
$31.82
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$-16.85
Win rate
8%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 76- NO
Will Victor Marx win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by 2–3%?
10 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.99
$0.09
- NO
Will Victor Marx win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by 1–2%?
10 shares @ 99.0¢·now 94.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.46
$-0.44
- NO
Will Victor Marx win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by 3–4%?
10 shares @ 99.0¢·now 63.7¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.37
$-3.53
- NO
Will Victor Marx win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by more than 4%?
10 shares @ 99.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.64
$-4.26
- NO
Will Victor Marx win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by less than 1%?
10 shares @ 99.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.35
$-9.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 19?
4692 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-449.06
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET
1143 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-39.89
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET
1003 shares @ 59.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-597.23
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 19?
796 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-106.19
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET
286 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Barbara Kirkmeyer win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by less than 1%?$10.00Jul 14, 18:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Barbara Kirkmeyer win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by 2–3%?$10.00Jul 14, 14:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Barbara Kirkmeyer win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by 1–2%?$10.00Jul 14, 14:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Barbara Kirkmeyer win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by 3–4%?$10.00Jul 14, 10:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Barbara Kirkmeyer win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by more than 4%?$10.01Jul 14, 10:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 3?$50.67Jul 4, 07:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 3?$50.01Jul 4, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 3, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$0.00Jul 3, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 3, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$4.78Jul 3, 22:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 3?$0.97Jul 3, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 3?$49.27Jul 3, 13:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 3?$0.40Jul 3, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 3?$10.93Jul 3, 10:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 3?$0.93Jul 3, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 3?$24.15Jul 3, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 3?$0.95Jul 3, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 3?$46.71Jul 3, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 3?$44.29Jul 3, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on July 3?$0.32Jul 3, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on July 3?$2.63Jul 3, 10:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $9.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 14:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 18:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.