Fancy-Outset
0x6a32c64d361ca0c4ac0f002ccbd821485f8dcab6
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
151
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-213.31
Realised
$6.31
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 151- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 6?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 13?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 9?
87 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 12?
76 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.91
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 7?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 7?
68 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 7?
68 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 13?
67 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 17?
51 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 8?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14?$1.03Jun 14, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14?$1.03Jun 14, 09:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11?$2.13Jun 11, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11?$1.02Jun 11, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11?$1.03Jun 11, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11?$1.03Jun 11, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9?$3.28Jun 10, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9?$1.54Jun 9, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 9?$1.44Jun 9, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 8?$1.02Jun 8, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 7?$4.00Jun 8, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 7?$1.72Jun 7, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 7?$1.04Jun 7, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 7?$2.05Jun 7, 17:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June 4?$4.80Jun 5, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June 4?$2.22Jun 4, 13:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3?$2.22Jun 4, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 3?$1.05Jun 3, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3?$1.02Jun 3, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 3?$2.04Jun 3, 10:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $1.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 20:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 09:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.