Wallet digest

active

Activity score

68/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-71.01

Realised

$9.24

Win rate

94%

16 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 46

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
101 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
22 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
18 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
11 shares @ 28.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
8 shares @ 94.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026
$0.00
$-7.30
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
7 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$2.00Jun 14, 00:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$1.00Jun 14, 00:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$3.08Jun 13, 22:14 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$2.95Jun 13, 22:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$3.05Jun 13, 22:12 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$3.94Jun 13, 22:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$3.11Jun 13, 22:10 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$2.15Jun 13, 22:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$2.06Jun 13, 22:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$1.03Jun 13, 21:58 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$3.72Jun 13, 21:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$3.09Jun 13, 21:55 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.91Jun 13, 21:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$1.02Jun 13, 21:52 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$2.23Jun 13, 21:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$2.06Jun 13, 21:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$1.06Jun 13, 21:48 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$1.42Jun 13, 21:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$3.12Jun 13, 21:44 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.10Jun 13, 21:40 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

45/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

94% win rate over 16 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence53 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry65 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 45
Avg trade size: $1.99
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 13, 20:19 UTC
Last active: Jun 14, 00:29 UTC
Win rate sample: 16 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:51:21 UTC·src:Polymarket Data