Naive-Wholesaler
0x6a3a928736d42cd5f99c900fa59e5067833aa88b
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
176
Open notional
$14.70
Total PnL
$-534.22
Realised
$-54.67
Win rate
1%
70 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 176- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 20?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 32.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$3.25
$2.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 20?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 26.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$2.65
$1.74
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?
5 shares @ 0.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$1.70
$1.70
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?
5 shares @ 0.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$1.60
$1.60
- YES
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.45ºC in August 2026?
5 shares @ 0.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$1.38
$1.38
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026?
5 shares @ 0.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$1.05
$1.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 20?
5 shares @ 9.1¢·now 19.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$0.97
$0.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 20?
5 shares @ 9.1¢·now 14.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$0.72
$0.27
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 20?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 5.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$0.50
$-0.41
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026?
5 shares @ 0.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.35
$0.35
Recent activity
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 20?$4.00Aug 18, 10:53 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in London on August 20?$0.00Aug 18, 10:53 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on August 20?$5.00Aug 18, 10:53 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 20?$5.00Aug 18, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 20?$3.85Aug 18, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 20?$4.81Aug 18, 10:37 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 20?$5.00Aug 18, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 20?$4.20Aug 18, 08:38 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 20?$5.00Aug 18, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 20?$4.00Aug 18, 05:57 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in London on August 20?$0.00Aug 18, 04:58 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on August 20?$5.00Aug 18, 04:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 18?$0.04Aug 18, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C or higher on August 18?$0.03Aug 18, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on August 18?$0.29Aug 18, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 18?$0.04Aug 18, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 18?$0.29Aug 18, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 18?$8.75Aug 18, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 18?$4.25Aug 18, 02:07 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 18?$5.00Aug 18, 02:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
63/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 70 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
70 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $3.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 02:39 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 10:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 70 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.