Watchful-Blight
0x6a404f060ab084322c2a209fb3d4eb328055599e
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$20.36
Total PnL
$-803.74
Realised
$-33.55
Win rate
2%
133 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
424 shares @ 0.7¢·now 1.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.30
$2.30
- YES
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
137 shares @ 6.6¢·now 2.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.49
$-5.51
- YES
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?
230 shares @ 1.4¢·now 1.1¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$2.64
$-0.66
- YES
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?
175 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$1.49
$0.09
- YES
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.9¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$1.36
$0.36
- YES
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.9¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$1.21
$0.21
- YES
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?
171 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$1.11
$-0.09
- YES
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.08
$0.08
- YES
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
333 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
286 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill FC Petrolul Ploieşti vs. FC Rapid 1923 end in a draw? AND Will SV Waldhof Mannheim vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw? AND Will MVV Maastricht vs. FC Volendam end in a draw?$1.07Aug 18, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Bradford City AFC end in a draw? AND Will FC Inter Turku vs. FC København end in a draw? AND Will Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?$1.21Aug 18, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lincoln Red Imps FC vs. Larne FC end in a draw? AND Will FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka end in a draw? AND Will FC Inter Turku vs. FC København end in a draw?$1.21Aug 18, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Phoenix Rising FC vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC end in a draw? AND Will Jagiellonia Białystok vs. SK Iberia 1999 end in a draw? AND Will Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF end in a draw? AND Will Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw?$1.00Aug 18, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. Sabah FK end in a draw? AND Will NEC vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw?$1.00Aug 18, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CD Universidad Católica vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw? AND Will Londrina EC vs. AC Goianiense end in a draw?$1.00Aug 18, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva 3 - 1 Sabah FK?$1.05Aug 18, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: PFK Levski Sofia 2 - 3 AEK?$1.32Aug 18, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: PFK Levski Sofia 3 - 2 AEK?$1.16Aug 18, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: PFK Levski Sofia 3 - 3 AEK?$1.05Aug 18, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Fenerbahçe SK 3 - 3 Olympique Lyonnais?$1.28Aug 18, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Fenerbahçe SK 3 - 2 Olympique Lyonnais?$1.26Aug 18, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Fenerbahçe SK 2 - 3 Olympique Lyonnais?$1.63Aug 18, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?$1.05Aug 18, 04:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eli Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?$42.03Aug 18, 04:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 14, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 133 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
133 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $2.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 08:37 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 10:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 133 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.