Crafty-Smile
0x6a77fd33fc828a94d257b42528289da156639a37
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$2.75
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- BASAVAREDDY
Next Gen ATP Finals, Final Stage: Learner Tien vs Nishesh Basavareddy
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- KNICKS
Knicks vs. Timberwolves
1667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 24, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
XRP all time high by December 31?
1333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 20?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
747 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-12.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10?
667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?
647 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$18.52Jul 21, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$5.31Jul 21, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Halliburton (HAL) beat quarterly earnings?$4.00Jul 21, 12:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wintrust (WTFC) beat quarterly earnings?$3.33Jul 20, 22:20 UTC
- TRADESELLSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$4.89Jul 18, 22:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.00Jul 18, 22:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.62Jul 18, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.09Jul 18, 21:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$5.15Jul 18, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$5.06Jul 18, 21:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$0.00Jul 18, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.40Jul 18, 21:44 UTC
- TRADESELLFrance vs. England: Team to Win$12.45Jul 18, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$0.00Jul 18, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$5.23Jul 18, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PG&E (PCG) beat quarterly earnings?$3.07Jul 18, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Verizon Communications (VZ) beat quarterly earnings?$3.05Jul 18, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings?$3.08Jul 18, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings?$3.06Jul 18, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?$3.06Jul 18, 19:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $4.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 15:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 15:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.