0x6aa953012725054d9034fdd3a7663559fbeede68
0x6aa953012725054d9034fdd3a7663559fbeede68
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$21.11
Total PnL
$0.11
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
1 shares @ 98.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?
1 shares @ 98.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
1 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
1 shares @ 99.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$1.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.00May 20, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$1.00May 20, 14:00 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$0.00May 20, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.00May 19, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.00May 19, 10:00 UTC
- REDEEMTrump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?$1.01May 19, 06:29 UTC
- REDEEMTrump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?$0.00May 19, 06:29 UTC
- REDEEMSan Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners$1.00May 19, 06:29 UTC
- REDEEMSan Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners$0.00May 19, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.00May 18, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.00May 18, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$1.00May 18, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.00May 18, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners$1.00May 18, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.00May 18, 02:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?$1.01May 17, 22:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$1.01May 17, 22:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?$1.00May 17, 22:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?$0.00May 17, 22:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14?$1.00May 17, 22:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $1.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 21:41 UTC
- Last active
- May 20, 14:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.