Overlooked-Thesis
0x6aed56bad49140d703cee37252d92b297258969f
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$1.26
Total PnL
$-58.50
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?
1 shares @ 79.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.26
$0.26
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7PM ET
229 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11PM ET
143 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-8.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
133 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?
118 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-25.91
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
116 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
23 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3AM ET
9 shares @ 21.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?$24.91Mar 20, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?$1.85Mar 20, 20:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?$2.56Mar 20, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?$1.00Mar 20, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?$1.00Mar 20, 20:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?$6.66Mar 20, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March?$0.70Mar 20, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March?$1.14Mar 20, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March?$3.32Mar 20, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?$9.62Mar 20, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2PM ET$1.00Mar 15, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2PM ET$1.00Mar 15, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2PM ET$1.00Mar 15, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3AM ET$1.00Mar 15, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3AM ET$1.00Mar 15, 07:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3AM ET$2.50Mar 15, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3AM ET$1.00Mar 15, 07:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12AM ET$0.00Mar 15, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$1.00Mar 15, 06:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2AM ET$3.60Mar 15, 06:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 15, 04:23 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 20, 23:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.