Wallet digest

active

Activity score

34/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-272.35

Realised

$-40.63

Win rate

10%

10 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 47

NO
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?
200 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026
$0.00
$-2.60
YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?
100 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-16.00
YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?
50 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026
$0.00
$-14.00
YES
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?
50 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026
$0.00
$-41.00
YES
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?
30 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026
$0.00
$-5.10
UP
BNB Up or Down - August 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
25 shares @ 30.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026
$0.00
$-7.55
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
20 shares @ 23.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-4.65
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
20 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$0.00
$-10.20
YES
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?
20 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-11.40
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
20 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$0.00
$-10.20

Recent activity

TRADESELLBNB Up or Down - August 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$1.08Aug 18, 09:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$3.86Aug 18, 09:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$1.00Aug 18, 09:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$0.65Aug 18, 09:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$0.90Aug 18, 09:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$5.00Aug 18, 09:30 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$0.19Aug 18, 09:22 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$0.21Aug 18, 09:22 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$0.70Aug 18, 09:18 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$0.30Aug 18, 09:18 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 09:18 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$1.00Aug 18, 09:17 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$1.00Aug 18, 09:09 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.45Aug 18, 09:06 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.26Aug 18, 09:06 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.09Aug 18, 09:05 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$1.19Aug 18, 09:02 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 09:02 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 09:01 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$0.10Aug 18, 08:56 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

39/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

10% win rate over 10 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity72 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence33 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry68 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk33 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 50
Avg trade size: $1.31
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 18, 03:25 UTC
Last active: Aug 18, 09:57 UTC
Win rate sample: 10 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 12:10:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data