0x6b49e25ab45cdd8e237d1f7c85fcf989ae2474cf
0x6b49e25ab45cdd8e237d1f7c85fcf989ae2474cf
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$117.48
Total PnL
$-72.18
Realised
$90.28
Win rate
56%
45 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- YES
Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?
22 shares @ 34.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2022$22.35
$14.60
- SPACE JAM
Will Space Jam: A New Legacy or Black Widow gross more domestically on the July 16-18 weekend?
20 shares @ 73.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2021$20.23
$5.30
- NO
Will the Suns win the 2021 NBA Finals?
17 shares @ 19.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2021$17.35
$13.97
- YES
Will 21 US States administer at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose to 70% of adults by September 1?
13 shares @ 43.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2021$13.28
$7.48
- NO
Will inflation be 0.6% or more from June to July?
6 shares @ 27.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2021$5.85
$4.25
- YES
Will 188 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by August 1?
5 shares @ 71.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2021$5.35
$1.54
- NO
Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired in 2021?
5 shares @ 53.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2022$4.74
$2.21
- YES
Will Iron Finance V2’s TVL be above $500m on August 1, 2021?
4 shares @ 19.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2021$3.87
$3.12
- YES
Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on September 30, 2021?
3 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2021$3.10
$0.12
- NO
Will Nina Turner win the Democratic Nomination in the OH-11 special election?
3 shares @ 22.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2021$2.72
$2.12
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 45 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
45 closed markets, 56% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 45 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.