Lean-Aftermath
0x6b5012826833770af8b10acf3049f01edfcfc9ba
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.5K
Total PnL
$-6.6K
Realised
$-762.42
Win rate
21%
43 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?
1755 shares @ 94.7¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.7K
$55.94
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 29?
245 shares @ 95.2¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$242.75
$9.23
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 29?
235 shares @ 97.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$234.43
$4.96
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 29?
221 shares @ 85.5¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$220.02
$30.85
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 29?
59 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$58.67
$2.32
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 18?
752 shares @ 53.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-402.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?
696 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-41.62
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16?
550 shares @ 92.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-509.73
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 5?
497 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-5.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 30?
478 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.14
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 29?$3.95Jul 29, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 29?$82.03Jul 29, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$112.57Jul 29, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$69.08Jul 29, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$128.52Jul 29, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 29?$0.34Jul 29, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$10.08Jul 29, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$3.09Jul 29, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$70.26Jul 29, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$29.87Jul 29, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$0.05Jul 29, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$0.55Jul 29, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$0.24Jul 29, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 29?$49.00Jul 29, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$15.74Jul 29, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 29?$1.21Jul 29, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 29?$24.87Jul 29, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$0.05Jul 29, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$0.07Jul 29, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$0.55Jul 29, 06:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 43 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
43 closed markets, 21% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $41.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 03:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 09:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 43 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.