Wallet digest

active

Activity score

48/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-504.45

Realised

$0.70

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 31

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
389 shares @ 32.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026
$0.00
$-126.17
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
347 shares @ 12.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026
$0.00
$-44.04
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
203 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026
$0.00
$-15.46
YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?
185 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026
$0.00
$-5.11
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
125 shares @ 48.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026
$0.00
$-60.16
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
113 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026
$0.00
$-21.47
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
82 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026
$0.00
$-16.30
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
74 shares @ 18.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-13.93
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
69 shares @ 34.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026
$0.00
$-23.93
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
68 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026
$0.00
$-13.54

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on July 9?$2.05Jul 9, 13:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 9?$8.88Jul 8, 18:27 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.83Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.11Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.56Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.92Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.61Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.42Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.78Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.44Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$14.77Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.05Jun 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.68Jun 14, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.80Jun 13, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$11.09Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$28.38Jun 8, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.40Jun 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.22May 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.84May 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.02May 20, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity35 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry35 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk49 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 18
Avg trade size: $13.17
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 20, 17:38 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 13:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:21:49 UTC·src:Polymarket Data