Other-Ephemera
0x6b823a673e286f2f1f74d090d3104087a45fe6be
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
86
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-73.57
Win rate
42%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 86- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
370 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-236.81
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
250 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
167 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-30.02
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
157 shares @ 31.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-49.42
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
140 shares @ 46.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-64.98
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
125 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-14.96
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
120 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$31.74May 30, 17:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$32.02May 30, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$29.07May 30, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$29.15May 30, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$19.15May 30, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$1.07May 30, 17:21 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$0.00May 30, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$81.39May 30, 17:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$10.49May 30, 17:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$52.76May 30, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$19.76May 30, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$3.14May 30, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$39.02May 30, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$10.36May 30, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$10.31May 30, 16:50 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$34.52May 30, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$20.66May 30, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$19.64May 30, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$11.36May 30, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$16.30May 30, 16:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $19.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 25, 08:52 UTC
- Last active
- May 30, 17:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.