Wallet digest

active

Activity score

35/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$1.93

Total PnL

$-70.78

Realised

$-2.63

Win rate

27 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 29

NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
2 shares @ 86.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$1.93
$0.21
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
200 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
103 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
45 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?
19 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
14 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?
13 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
UP
Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET
12 shares @ 32.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
DOWN
Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

REDEEMWill Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?$6.25Jul 7, 23:12 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?$5.11Jul 7, 18:32 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?$2.04Jul 7, 18:31 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - July 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$2.67Jul 7, 12:05 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$2.03Jul 7, 12:02 UTC
TRADEBUYUFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)$3.40Jul 7, 07:12 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$0.00Jul 6, 19:16 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$2.10Jul 6, 17:31 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$2.08Jul 6, 17:30 UTC
TRADESELLHyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$4.03Jul 6, 15:28 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$2.07Jul 6, 15:25 UTC
TRADESELLHyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$4.20Jul 6, 13:19 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$2.08Jul 6, 13:18 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$2.10Jul 6, 12:41 UTC
TRADEBUYUnited States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance$4.06Jul 6, 12:39 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$0.71Jul 6, 12:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$2.08Jul 6, 12:35 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$2.07Jul 6, 12:35 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$1.06Jul 6, 12:32 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - July 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$0.00Jul 6, 12:31 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

53/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 27 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity40 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence90 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry59 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk49 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 40
Avg trade size: $2.59
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 6, 11:35 UTC
Last active: Jul 7, 23:12 UTC
Win rate sample: 27 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 02:00:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data