Elderly-Reveal
0x6beefb1c8d4b91b9b6d437840c241e74e6997e78
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.26
Total PnL
$-4.6K
Realised
$289.40
Win rate
68%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 28?
918 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.46
$-16.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 28?
847 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.42
$-3.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 28?
764 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.38
$-0.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25?
3201 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18?
2809 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-78.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 29?
2637 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-20.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10?
2483 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-52.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28?
2187 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-96.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18?
2012 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-52.27
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 11?
1980 shares @ 18.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-363.56
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 29?$0.00Jul 28, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$0.38Jul 28, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 29?$0.36Jul 28, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 29?$0.60Jul 28, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 29?$0.80Jul 28, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$0.91Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$0.19Jul 28, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$1.92Jul 28, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$1.60Jul 28, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$4.47Jul 28, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$7.34Jul 28, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$0.80Jul 28, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$5.30Jul 28, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$0.43Jul 28, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$0.80Jul 28, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$1.44Jul 28, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$6.40Jul 28, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 29?$0.14Jul 28, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 29?$0.20Jul 28, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 29?$0.05Jul 28, 19:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
31 closed markets, 68% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 16:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.