Wallet digest

active

Activity score

64/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.0K

Realised

$242.67

Win rate

84%

19 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

NO
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?
7166 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026
$0.00
$-41.80
NO
Will Solana dip to $100 in January?
5320 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026
$0.00
$-5.32
NO
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?
5010 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026
$0.00
$-5.01
NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
2500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
NO
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January?
2000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 January 26-1?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
1838 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
1113 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026
$0.00
$-29.99

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$10.44Jun 11, 21:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$5.26Jun 11, 21:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$5.31Jun 11, 20:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET$1.07Jun 11, 20:52 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET$2.12Jun 10, 21:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET$1.70Jun 10, 21:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$2.43Jun 10, 21:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$10.53Jun 5, 13:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$5.31Jun 5, 13:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$10.65Jun 4, 15:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$10.96Jun 4, 15:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$4.21Jun 4, 15:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$5.30Jun 4, 14:57 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10AM ET$5.55Jun 4, 14:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10AM ET$5.31Jun 4, 14:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$2.14Jun 4, 14:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$10.65Jun 4, 14:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$6.30May 19, 15:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$5.30May 19, 13:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$1.07May 19, 13:56 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

38/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

84% win rate over 19 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence63 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry0 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 48
Avg trade size: $5.80
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 30, 22:52 UTC
Last active: Jun 11, 21:05 UTC
Win rate sample: 19 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:33:00 UTC·src:Polymarket Data