Murky-Reflection
0x6c0cebe757abe8011734efa0514e8e53891e0638
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-719.19
Realised
$-19.61
Win rate
0%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
400 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
160 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
157 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 24?
100 shares @ 91.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-91.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
87 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
78 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
75 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
Recent activity
- REWARD$29.47Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 6?$0.54Jul 6, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 6?$0.52Jul 6, 14:04 UTC
- REWARD$6.54Jul 6, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 5?$0.48Jul 5, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 5?$0.48Jul 5, 22:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 5?$0.24Jul 5, 22:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 5?$0.50Jul 5, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 5?$1.00Jul 5, 22:45 UTC
- REWARD$3.29Jul 5, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 4?$44.35Jul 4, 22:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 4?$0.22Jul 4, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 4?$0.12Jul 4, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 4?$40.80Jul 4, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 4?$0.41Jul 4, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 4?$0.24Jul 4, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 4?$0.95Jul 4, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 4?$0.62Jul 4, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 4?$0.35Jul 4, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 4?$0.31Jul 4, 17:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $43.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 20:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.