Guilty-Matter
0x6c1cda5055bd5e6d6268eef3b223e86f57da5650
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.18
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?
12 shares @ 81.2¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.18
$-9.82
- OVER
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5
23 shares @ 88.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27?
13 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
13 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 25?
13 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- VITALITY
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner
12 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?
12 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- CONVICTION
LoL: Conviction vs Winthrop University (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage
12 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 21?
12 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- OVER
France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5
12 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?$10.10Aug 5, 03:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Electronic Arts (EA) beat quarterly earnings?$11.11Aug 4, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?$10.78Aug 4, 15:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in July?$5.00Aug 4, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMIsraeli forces enter Choukine by July 31?$10.33Aug 3, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 31?$10.20Aug 3, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?$10.34Aug 1, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?$10.24Aug 1, 06:50 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?$5.00Aug 1, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?$12.50Aug 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? $10.17Aug 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMSCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? $10.20Aug 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31?$2.97Aug 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMIran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?$10.16Aug 1, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 31?$10.10Aug 1, 05:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$10.21Aug 1, 04:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?$10.14Aug 1, 04:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill XRP reach $1.20 in July?$10.07Aug 1, 04:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$10.10Aug 1, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 31?$12.20Jul 31, 23:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 23:42 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 03:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.