0x6c45247f8573bc556be4d767c8777777778d91a9
0x6c45247f8573bc556be4d767c8777777778d91a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$11.60
Total PnL
$279.37
Realised
$652.20
Win rate
45%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will Cardano support smart contracts on Mainnet by October 1st, 2021?
7 shares @ 52.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2021$6.59
$3.14
- NO
Will Harry Kane sign for Manchester City on or before August 31, 2021?
2 shares @ 45.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2021$2.42
$1.32
- NO
Will weekly jobless claims exceed 400K for the week ending on July 31?
1 shares @ 73.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2021$1.35
$0.35
- NO
Will weekly jobless claims exceed 375K for the week ending on August 14?
1 shares @ 80.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2021$1.24
$0.24
- NO
Will 40 or more US states have high/substantial COVID-19 community spread on any day on or before September 1?
975 shares @ 15.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2021$0.00
$-150.27
- NO
Will 21 US States administer at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose to 70% of adults by September 1?
538 shares @ 18.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2021$0.00
$-100.00
- WOODLEY
Will Jake Paul or Tyron Woodley win their boxing match?
128 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 29, 2021$0.00
$-9.64
- YES
Will Kanye West’s album DONDA be released by July 23?
98 shares @ 51.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2021$0.00
$-50.50
- NO
Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?
90 shares @ 22.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2022$0.00
$-20.06
- YES
Will more than 2.3 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before September 15?
55 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 15, 2021$0.00
$-7.00
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.