Occasional-Itinerary
0x6c5b2b9963f26f9afcfbc098de3c6f672c07d8f8
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$8.36
Total PnL
$-249.52
Realised
$-105.69
Win rate
0%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- TAMPA BAY RAYS
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
4 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$3.85
$1.85
- NO
Will the Union for Central African Renewal win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.25
$0.00
- NO
Will the National Union for Democracy and Progress win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 94.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.08
$-0.06
- NO
Will the Movement for the Liberation of the Central African People win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- NO
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
1 shares @ 77.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.47
$-0.56
- YES
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
3 shares @ 42.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.37
$-0.78
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
2 shares @ 97.3¢·now 14.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.34
$-1.94
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
184 shares @ 45.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-83.87
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
54 shares @ 53.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-29.03
- YES
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
24 shares @ 13.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYCincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies$1.22May 19, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBaltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays$2.03May 19, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold have the best performance in 2026?$1.22May 19, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.58May 19, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$4.36May 19, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$28.98Mar 5, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$68.14Mar 5, 16:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$97.12Mar 5, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$67.29Mar 5, 15:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1,250 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?$1.13Mar 5, 15:50 UTC
- REDEEMNets vs. Celtics$1.39Mar 5, 15:50 UTC
- REDEEMKnicks vs. Bucks$1.81Mar 5, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Bucks$1.36Feb 27, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYNets vs. Celtics$1.28Feb 27, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYCavaliers vs. Pistons$2.33Feb 27, 14:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?$1.39Feb 27, 14:55 UTC
- REDEEMDubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Zhizhen Zhang$1.44Feb 27, 14:55 UTC
- REDEEMHouston Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks$3.06Feb 27, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYDubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Zhizhen Zhang$1.28Feb 23, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?$1.21Feb 23, 15:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $10.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 17, 17:37 UTC
- Last active
- May 19, 16:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.