Impossible-Window
0x6c5ce26c21d59ad20049f4528eaae116f197ecf0
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-39.0K
Realised
$-12.1K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Mark Carney lose his seat?
396378 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-24.6K
- YES
Will Falcons win the BLAST Rivals Season 1 Tournament?
6097 shares @ 35.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2025$0.00
$-2.1K
- YES
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election?
1428 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-119.44
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
370 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-42.30
Recent activity
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?$367.33Feb 22, 04:52 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?$102.00Feb 21, 10:24 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$100.00Feb 20, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$100.00Jan 31, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?$513.00Jan 31, 07:29 UTC
- TRADESELLUS government shutdown Saturday?$1.5KJan 31, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$70.83Jan 30, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the government shutdown last 3 days or more?$70.83Jan 30, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 3 days or more?$54.90Jan 30, 14:53 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$54.91Jan 30, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$8.54Jan 29, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$324.59Jan 29, 19:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$333.12Jan 29, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$668.99Jan 26, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$22.30Jan 18, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$35.00Jan 18, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$120.00Jan 18, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$54.00Jan 14, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$20.00Jan 14, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$250.00Jan 14, 14:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $204.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 25, 15:19 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 22, 04:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.