Rough-Hedge-Thumb
0x6c8a3d4f3456d62eb48303d7860fd670b02ec110
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$1.01
Total PnL
$-40.69
Realised
$-1.98
Win rate
0%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
2 shares @ 0.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$1.01
$1.01
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - August 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - August 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
109 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - August 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
80 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.80
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - August 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
57 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - August 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - August 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
31 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.92
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - August 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
28 shares @ 25.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - August 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
27 shares @ 40.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - August 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
19 shares @ 15.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.03Aug 21, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$2.05Aug 21, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$5.23Aug 21, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$5.18Aug 21, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$1.03Aug 21, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.07Aug 21, 09:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$2.70Aug 21, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.04Aug 21, 09:05 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - August 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.18Aug 21, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.01Aug 21, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.06Aug 21, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.06Aug 21, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.04Aug 21, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$1.05Aug 21, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$5.27Aug 21, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.05Aug 21, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.04Aug 21, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.06Aug 21, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.05Aug 21, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.04Aug 21, 08:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 21, 07:06 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 09:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.