Outstanding-Quit
0x6caf0ce866a04fa0fbeb362787e540aebff72799
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$28.44
Win rate
88%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 27?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1PM ET
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 5AM ET
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 27?
1900 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
1003 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$2.07Jul 16, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$1.07Jul 16, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$0.85Jul 16, 06:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$3.23Jul 16, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$8.02Jul 16, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$1.15Jul 16, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$3.53Jul 13, 10:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$0.00Jul 13, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$9.93Jul 13, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$11.99Jul 13, 09:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$0.00Jul 13, 09:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$3.55Jul 13, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$1.15Jul 13, 08:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$0.00Jul 13, 08:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$27.39Jul 13, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$20.11Jul 13, 08:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$0.00Jul 13, 08:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$11.01Jul 13, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$9.12Jul 13, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$2.37Jul 13, 08:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $3.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 08:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 06:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.