Wallet digest

active

Activity score

66/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-53.90

Realised

$4.82

Win rate

90%

10 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 49

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 11?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?
928 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$0.00
$-0.93
NO
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
376 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NEW ZEALAND
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand
100 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$2.06Jun 15, 00:24 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$0.00Jun 15, 00:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$10.57Jun 15, 00:15 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$9.73Jun 15, 00:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$10.14Jun 15, 00:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$1.03Jun 4, 18:20 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$1.22May 11, 18:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$1.03May 11, 18:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$1.00May 11, 18:32 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.20May 11, 17:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.03May 11, 17:52 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$0.00May 8, 11:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$5.28May 8, 11:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$1.00Apr 25, 11:30 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$0.00Apr 25, 11:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$1.00Apr 25, 11:12 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$3.60Apr 22, 23:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$3.40Apr 22, 23:47 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$1.06Apr 22, 23:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$1.00Apr 22, 23:46 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

33/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

90% win rate over 10 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence33 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry31 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $1.86
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 11, 18:10 UTC
Last active: Jun 15, 00:24 UTC
Win rate sample: 10 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 14:39:51 UTC·src:Polymarket Data