Valid-Armrest
0x6ce4f3172eadb9adc944c460f129fb0e47cce00b
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$14.04
Total PnL
$0.07
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?
4 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$3.97
$0.00
- NO
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
1 shares @ 97.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$1.02
$0.02
- NO
Israel strike on Iran on June 30?
1 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2025$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1?
1 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2025$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?
1 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$1.01
$0.01
- NO
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July?
1 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before July?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$1.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model on June 30?$3.97Jun 30, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before July?$1.00Jun 30, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1?$1.00Jun 30, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31?$1.00Jun 30, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US officially declare war on Iran before July?$1.00Jun 30, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$1.00Jun 30, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $115K in June?$1.00Jun 30, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran nuclear talks resume before July?$1.00Jun 30, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire before July? $1.00Jun 30, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strike on Iran on June 30?$1.00Jun 30, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?$1.00Jun 30, 11:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea?$1.00Jun 30, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23?$1.00Jun 30, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31?$1.01Jun 30, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $101K on May 23?$1.01Jun 30, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?$1.01Jun 30, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $300 in May?$7.75Jun 30, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $300 in May?$7.70May 21, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $101K on May 23?$1.00May 21, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?$1.00May 21, 14:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $4.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 14, 09:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 11:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.