Grubby-Geranium
0x6d36ed3668dd1682024fe9034823ba871cbd8886
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$39.40
Total PnL
$0.09
Realised
$-0.00
Win rate
0%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
8 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.9¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$8.29
$0.04
- YES
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on June 9?
7 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$6.51
$0.01
- NO
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
6 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.43
$0.01
- NO
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
4 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.42
$0.00
- NO
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 9?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$3.00
$0.00
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 9?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$2.23
$0.00
- NO
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.55
$0.00
- NO
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$1.45
$0.01
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.17
$0.01
- NO
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.15
$0.01
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$35.31Jul 11, 11:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $6.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 17:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.