Insubstantial-Hope
0x6d4ea2dfa17b829406b9308f03d30926a9386478
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-9.1K
Realised
$-510.32
Win rate
19%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- UNDER
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5
41922 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
- UNDER
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5
30000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- UNDER
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5
21388 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-322.30
- NO
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?
18288 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-984.91
- UNDER
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5
17502 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.5K
- UNDER
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5
15000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
- UNDER
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 0.5
15000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-59.99
- UNDER
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5
9221 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-326.62
- OVER
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5
5522 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
- UNDER
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5
5000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$94.58Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$55.08Jul 8, 00:55 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$184.76Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$15.21Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$462.71Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$185.38Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$254.29Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$240.90Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$252.47Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$82.26Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$96.76Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$39.69Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMUzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5$0.15Jun 26, 03:55 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$150.59Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$243.19Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$189.02Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$87.18Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$6.75Jun 23, 00:15 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$74.18Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$22.24Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
19% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
36 closed markets, 19% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $79.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 03:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.