0x6d5a43e8b7f03c841fdbb9268d04e60b915231c3
0x6d5a43e8b7f03c841fdbb9268d04e60b915231c3
Wallet digest
Activity score
23/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
4
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-46.30
Realised
$-1.80
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 18?
7517 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?
51 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
30 shares @ 16.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down on August 18?
10 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?$5.21Aug 18, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down on August 18?$1.59Aug 18, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 18?$18.90Aug 18, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?$20.61Aug 18, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 17?$49.00Aug 18, 06:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 17?$0.00Aug 18, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 17?$6.97Aug 17, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 17?$2.58Aug 17, 11:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
6 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 6
- Avg trade size
- $9.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 11:46 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 16:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.