Wallet digest

active

Activity score

38/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

187

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.1K

Realised

$-157.26

Win rate

21%

124 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 187

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
820 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-57.43
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
341 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-40.92
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
314 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-15.69
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
252 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-17.71
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
215 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-6.69
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
203 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-2.03
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
150 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-8.90
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
137 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-1.37
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
95 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-0.95
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
82 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-22.14

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$5.00Jun 20, 16:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$2.30Jun 20, 15:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$2.65Jun 20, 15:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$0.45Jun 20, 15:29 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$10.00Jun 20, 15:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$2.25Jun 20, 15:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$2.49Jun 20, 15:17 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$1.12Jun 20, 14:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$2.45Jun 20, 14:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$2.55Jun 20, 14:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$0.54Jun 20, 14:40 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$10.00Jun 20, 14:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$4.50Jun 20, 14:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$0.90Jun 20, 14:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$4.10Jun 20, 14:38 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$5.00Jun 20, 14:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$2.50Jun 20, 14:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$2.45Jun 20, 14:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$2.50Jun 20, 14:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$2.60Jun 20, 14:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

21% win rate over 124 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

124 closed markets, 21% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity40 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry40 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 39
Avg trade size: $2.07
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 19, 20:50 UTC
Last active: Jun 20, 16:46 UTC
Win rate sample: 124 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 06:12:12 UTC·src:Polymarket Data