Wallet digest

active

Activity score

45/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-477.40

Realised

$-112.56

Win rate

38%

16 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 27

UP
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
57 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-15.31
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
40 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-15.13
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 4PM ET
36 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-16.35
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
36 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-15.57
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
36 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-15.32
UP
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
32 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-24.17
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1PM ET
32 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026
$0.00
$-16.61
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
31 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-22.57
UP
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 1PM ET
30 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026
$0.00
$-15.38
UP
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
29 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-21.51

Recent activity

MAKER_REBATE$8.87May 31, 00:45 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$0.00May 30, 22:49 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$30.22May 30, 22:05 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$0.01May 30, 21:50 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$12.65May 30, 21:46 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$14.87May 30, 21:46 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$3.73May 30, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$1.30May 30, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$4.90May 30, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$4.96May 30, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$5.02May 30, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$3.62May 30, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$5.02May 30, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$3.74May 30, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$5.08May 30, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$5.09May 30, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$1.28May 30, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$9.17May 30, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$3.85May 30, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$0.09May 30, 21:45 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

38/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

38% win rate over 16 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence53 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry22 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 46
Avg trade size: $5.83
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 30, 21:38 UTC
Last active: May 31, 00:45 UTC
Win rate sample: 16 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 15:36:03 UTC·src:Polymarket Data