Flowery-Sweater
0x6de20de7eb7aea35d5e7e2e5a445c43fdfe4adca
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$670.49
Total PnL
$-2.4K
Realised
$-32.66
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
100 shares @ 54.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$100.10
$45.34
- YES
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?
100 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$100.03
$46.01
- YES
Will Marty Supreme be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
100 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$100.00
$13.00
- YES
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
100 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$100.00
$35.00
- YES
Will Sentimental Value be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
100 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$99.99
$18.00
- YES
Will Zootopia 2 be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?
70 shares @ 84.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$70.00
$10.69
- YES
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 70%?
44 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$43.84
$8.77
- YES
Will Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
32 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$32.49
$6.17
- YES
Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
24 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$24.04
$5.77
- NO
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China before June?
2987 shares @ 52.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.6K
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?$302.16Dec 23, 04:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$8.46Dec 11, 01:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$13.54Dec 10, 14:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zootopia 2 be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$24.72Dec 8, 15:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zootopia 2 be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$8.80Dec 8, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sentimental Value be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$11.60Dec 8, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sentimental Value be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$5.24Dec 8, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sentimental Value be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$65.15Dec 8, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zootopia 2 be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.68Dec 8, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zootopia 2 be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$58.80Dec 8, 04:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zootopia 2 be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$17.60Dec 6, 17:54 UTC
- REWARD$1.27Dec 6, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zootopia 2 be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$51.60Dec 5, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: December$30.72Dec 5, 07:07 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: December$7.45Dec 5, 03:31 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: December$0.80Dec 5, 02:21 UTC
- REWARD$1.88Dec 5, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next James Bond be British?$11.62Dec 4, 13:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next James Bond be British?$75.52Dec 4, 10:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?$16.24Dec 4, 02:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $24.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 2, 05:21 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 23, 04:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.