Extraneous-Marker
0x6de6546532fa651050d45a61daefc2439e77f3e4
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-17.12
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
179 shares @ 66.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-118.64
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
110 shares @ 69.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-76.66
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
108 shares @ 31.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-34.40
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
102 shares @ 67.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-69.27
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
98 shares @ 32.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-31.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 4?
92 shares @ 42.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-39.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
87 shares @ 46.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-40.46
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
86 shares @ 29.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-25.14
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
85 shares @ 29.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-24.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 2?
74 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-4.43
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$10.36Aug 4, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET$6.58Aug 4, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$5.98Aug 4, 17:23 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$16.27Aug 4, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$23.03Aug 4, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$3.77Aug 4, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$3.35Aug 4, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$3.59Aug 4, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET$3.68Aug 4, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$7.44Aug 4, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$4.30Aug 4, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$7.35Jul 20, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$5.78Jul 20, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$2.32Jul 20, 09:08 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$0.11Jul 20, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$4.03Jul 20, 08:45 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$10.10Jul 20, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$7.25Jul 20, 08:27 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$13.97Jul 20, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$2.12Jul 20, 08:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $4.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 12:59 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 18:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.