Loose-Chaplain
0x6dee448d049176dda63bf6257178fc364c3d37b5
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
70
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-969.13
Realised
$-70.11
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 70- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
14208 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-39.06
- NO
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026?
11000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will "How to Make a Killing" score at least 56 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 36 and 38 million views on day 3?
3654 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.99
- YES
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?
3300 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-165.73
- NO
Will MrBeast's latest video get less than 45 million views on week 1?
1623 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.48
- YES
Will Wuthering Heights be the highest grossing movie this weekend?
1554 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-127.40
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 32 million views on day 3?
1250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026?
1163 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.16
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of February?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$9.80Mar 15, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "How to Make a Killing" score at least 56 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$3.00Mar 15, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 16?$1.00Mar 15, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 16?$4.61Mar 15, 07:51 UTC
- TRADESELLGemini 3.5 released by March 31?$18.60Mar 15, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 16?$1.84Mar 15, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$9.00Mar 15, 07:39 UTC
- TRADESELLGemini 3.5 released by March 31?$10.80Mar 15, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?$0.95Mar 7, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?$1.00Mar 5, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$1.00Mar 3, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bill Clinton say "Hillary" during his Epstein testimony?$1.00Mar 3, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$1.00Mar 3, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?$5.00Mar 3, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?$3.00Mar 3, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$2.07Mar 3, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLGemini 3.5 released by March 31?$15.03Mar 3, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?$0.53Mar 3, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?$0.36Mar 3, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?$0.07Mar 3, 15:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 22:49 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 15, 14:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.