Spherical-Mistake
0x6def185aff485a74124d08d838dd80697ab87096
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
71
Open notional
$64.00
Total PnL
$56.1K
Realised
$57.2K
Win rate
23%
57 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 71- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?
2000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 3.2¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$64.00
$60.00
- YES
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in May?
13999 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-29.36
- YES
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in May?
11674 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-29.07
- YES
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May?
10312 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-23.07
- YES
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May?
10174 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-24.17
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by ≤3.1% in April?
9633 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-37.56
- YES
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in May?
8010 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-29.09
- YES
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in May?
7059 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-13.15
- YES
Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.4% in July?
7023 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.00
$-7.08
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in April?
7000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-20.83
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.32Aug 13, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation decrease by 0.2% in July?$0.02Aug 12, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation decrease by 0.3% in July?$0.02Aug 12, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation decrease by 0.2% in July?$0.05Aug 12, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation decrease by 0.3% in July?$0.05Aug 12, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation decrease by 0.3% in July?$0.01Aug 12, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation decrease by 0.2% in July?$0.01Aug 12, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation decrease by 0.4% in July?$0.62Aug 12, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation decrease by 0.3% in July?$0.67Aug 12, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation decrease by 0.2% in July?$0.66Aug 12, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.2% in July?$18.90Aug 12, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.6% in July?$15.00Aug 12, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?$14.76Aug 12, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.6% in July?$5.25Aug 12, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.6% in July?$2.43Aug 12, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?$0.75Aug 12, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.2% in July?$9.20Aug 12, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.6% in July?$0.90Aug 12, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.2% in July?$1.00Aug 12, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?$12.79Aug 12, 06:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
23% win rate over 57 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
57 closed markets, 23% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 05:49 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 57 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.