Gullible-Catalyst
0x6e044fe6b0808c10e73e8eacbdbecce16e587127
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
98
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-19.02
Win rate
0%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 98- YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
351 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
122 shares @ 81.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.00
$-99.41
- LUCA CASTELNUOVO
Centurion 2: Luca Castelnuovo vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
78 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- ZHANG MINGYANG
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
71 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- ANASTASIA POTAPOVA
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya
67 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
- MADISON KEYS
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider
58 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- KRAWIETZ/PUETZ
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Balaji/Demoliner
53 shares @ 76.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
42 shares @ 89.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$0.00
$-37.78
- LIUDMILA SAMSONOVA
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova
39 shares @ 51.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
30 shares @ 33.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-10.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$0.10Aug 23, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$0.44Aug 23, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$1.77Aug 23, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$0.36Aug 23, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$0.36Aug 23, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$1.49Aug 23, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$0.00Aug 23, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$0.40Aug 23, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$1.19Aug 23, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$1.80Aug 23, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$0.01Aug 23, 06:49 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$10.00Aug 23, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$7.20Aug 23, 06:36 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$46.00Aug 23, 06:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$41.00Aug 23, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$0.10Aug 23, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$14.02Aug 23, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$9.30Aug 23, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$14.95Aug 23, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$14.95Aug 23, 06:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $5.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 23, 05:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 06:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.